This is how scoring chances work:
- Last matchplays have higher chances to score - as your matchplay is closer to the end of the match there is a higher probability for a goal
- Possession matters - the higher the difference between the 2 teams, the higher the probability to score a goal in that matchplay.
Also, keep in mind that there is no matchplay with 0% to score and no matchplay with 100% to score. So surprises can always appear.